Noelvi, No Problem

 

After half of a season of plugging people in at corner positions and getting absolutely nothing from them, the Cincinnati Reds finally have the opposite problem, platooning three of the hottest-hitting third basemen in baseball. Noelvi Marte and Miguel Andujar are trading off at third while each hitting .300+ as a Red, under Ke'Bryan Hayes who isn't doing too badly there either. While Jeimer Candelario sits on his couch and shakes his head.

Noelvi Marte getting to finish this season as an above-average 3B option is an inexplicable but welcome development. For a while he was either refusing to hit at the major league level or getting himself suspended the exact moment he started hitting. Him and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were switching off infuriating the Reds' fanbase for a while, and so soon after Nick Senzel flamed out. His first half was actually an improvement, one that I think a lot of people, including myself, were hesitant to embrace because of the PED suspension. But...Marte's hitting .306 this year, with 10 homers and 40 RBIs in 58 games. I think Fernando Tatis has taught us that PED suspensions don't mean as much anymore if the player is willing to put in the work to erase it. Marte, like another baseball Marte, seems to be doing that. I think Ke'Bryan Hayes might be 3B1 right now, 

It couldn't come at a better time for the Reds, who've had some excellent wins recently against teams like the Phillies, Angels and, most notably, the Brewers. That Brewers series was an all-out war, with some games being decided by the Reds' bullpen mucking it up, or by an errant Brewers bench guy. The starting pitching was never an issue for these guys, though, as Abbott, Greene, Singer, Martinez and Littell have all looked great recently. Greene came back off the IL and has been dominant in both starts back, including a gem against Philly. Andrew Abbott looked awesome against the Brewers last week, and continues to put up Cy Young quality numbers. And Zack Littell has continued his strong year since coming over from Tampa, with a 3.06 ERA in 3 starts. The bullpen seems to be healing, as I think the key is just keeping Joe La Sorsa the hell out of there. Considering how quick the Reds were to get rid of Jake Fraley it's concerning they keep letting La Sorsa out. Then again, I'm a Phils fan and can't see why Jordan Romano's still employed. 

The Reds are barely outside of a wild card spot. Their main competitor is the Mets, who've fallen very far and are only a half game ahead of them. This weekend the Reds play the Diamondbacks, then next week they play the Dodgers, who are also falling. This is insanely doable, as it has been the last couple years. All that remains is for the Reds to stay out of their own way. Can it be done this year?

Coming Tonight: Every year for the past five years he's been literally inconsolable in April or May yet by the end of the season he's one of the most integral hitters on the team. The Rangers must be used to this by now.

The Bus Stops Here

 

Okay. So the Marlins aren't a playoff team. As cool as their July surge was, they're not getting over .500, and they're way too inexperienced to craft a decent competitive performance. They also just lost Kyle Stowers to an injury, and Edward Cabrera seems to be calming down tremendously in August. So this really seems like a 'the horror is over' season without the benefit of a great ending.

However. I now know way more about the direction of this Marlins team than I did last year. Because last year, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby and Eury Perez were all question marks, and now we know the team can rely on them. And last year, this Marlins team didn't have Liam Hicks, Ronny Henriquez, Agustin Ramirez, Heriberto Hernandez, Jakob Marsee or Janson Junk in position to succeed, and now they do. Hicks might be a more confident catching choice going forward than Fortes, Henriquez joins Bender as an excellent relief option, Hernandez has been hot this month, Marsee has been hitting like a storm ever since the call-up, and Junk allowed for some stability in June.

Of all of them, Agustin Ramirez might be the most important piece. The Marlins have, in the same farm system, two different pieces that can absolutely annihilate the ball despite some sloppy mechanics. They have Ramirez and they have Deyvison de los Santos. De los Santos hit 40 homers in the minors last year, and the fact that he's only hit 12 this year probably tells you why he hasn't made the majors yet. Ramirez got off to the better start this year, and had more contact luck in Jacksonville, which is why he's here. So far, despite being a downgrade defensively, Ramirez has 18 home runs and 56 RBIs, and has been one of the team leaders in production. Ramirez has the second-highest slugging percentage on the team, being Stowers and Hernandez. Even if all Ramirez will be is a power-hitting DH, that's still a good thing for the Marlins, as they need guys like that. Stowers, Marsee, Hernandez and Ramirez all look to contribute to this team for the foreseeable future, and the power numbers are gonna be insane if they all continue to pitch in like this.

Ultimately this team is gonna need to figure out how to keep their starters in one place without anybody getting hurt or falling off. They seem to have gotten Alcantara working, but they've gotten 3 straight bad starts from Cabrera. Weathers is still hurt, Garrett probably isn't showing up at all this year. Perez has been pretty good at least. If those five were all good at the same time we wouldn't be talking about what could have happened. But they all picked their moments and everything was spread out. With Ryan Gusto and Adam Mazur in the mix, who knows if all 5 will even get that chance next year.

At the very least, it is unlikely the Marlins will finish in last, they will be somewhat close to .500, and Clayton McCullough will probably keep his job. The bar will be slightly higher next year though.

Coming Tomorrow- He's been stalling for so long on living up to his reputation as a prospect that his midyear turn has caught a lot of fans off guard.

Thinking Critically About Giancarlo Stanton

 

What's fascinating about the current period of baseball history, where there's less 500-club guys or less 3000-hit guys, is that you have to find other ways to gauge success, even if they're unconventional. Because there's more injuries, less contact hitting and more career one-dimensional sluggers, it's harder to say 'well that's one of the best guys to ever play' because all you can say is 'they hit a lot of home runs'. David Ortiz hit a lot of home runs, but he also could hit .300. Nelson Cruz hit a lot of home runs...and not much else. And that's most great power hitters right now. It's hard to make a case for enshrining a Kyle Schwarber or an Eugenio Suarez or even a Cody Bellinger, because of so many years where there wasn't much more to them than the power game.

And then you have the case of Giancarlo Stanton. Who is genuinely one of the best power hitters of the last 25 years, and one of the most powerful hitters of all time. When he hits one out, there's rarely a doubt. He led the league in homers twice, and was off to an incredible start in 2015 before an injury shortened his season. Right now Stanton is on pace for 450 home runs by the end of this year, and at 35 he's a shoo-in for the 500-home-run club before his career's done. His 2017 season was one of the all time greats by a hitter, with 59 bombs, 132 RBIs and a well-deserved MVP. Ten of Stanton's 16 seasons have had more than 25 home runs in them, and his career OPS stands at .874. 

Now...there's one or two things that have lessened his overall appeal as an all-time player. Firstly, his gameplay has gone down in quality since signing with the Yankees, as we all knew it would. He's a professional DH who usually hits around .225, and strikes out 140 times a year. The other issue is the amount of time lost to injuries, as his fullest season was back in 2018, and since then his most full season was 139 games in 2021. But here's what I will say to that point: Aaron Judge has been all but coronated as a Hall of Famer, and his long injury absences aren't going to hurt that.  His age 26 through 28 seasons were all marred by injury, and in 2023 an already-excellent year was hampered by a run-in with an outfield wall. And nobody talks about that as a factor because even in years that he was hurt he still hit 27 or more homers, even going 37 in 2023. Ken Griffey Jr. missed the majority of his Reds years, and you don't see people calling him a 'what could have been'. Same with Mike Trout.

Giancarlo Stanton right now, despite having missed half the year, is making up for lost time by providing one of the most insane hitting stretches he's had in a while. In 46 games, he's hitting .311 with 15 homers and 40 RBIs. The other night in Tampa he had a 2-homer game, which was his first since July 8th of 2023, a game I WAS IN ATTENDANCE FOR. And one of those was the longest hit ball I'd ever seen. Giancarlo still has more to prove, and is still one of the most fearsome power hitters in the game. Even if his injuries define his story, you cannot take that away from him.

The Yankees, meanwhile, are looking a ton better and speeding back towards 1st. Cam Schlittler has looked excellent in his early starts, and took the Rays deep last night without allowing any base-runners. Rodon has been the ace, Fried is slowly beginning to come back around, Warren will likely get ROY votes and Gil, while not 2024 dominant, has had some nice starts himself. The offense is coming alive yet again, and Jose Caballero already seems at home with this team. Ben Rice is also getting hot, which is a very good thing. I'm feeling a lot better about this team, and hopefully Big G leads them to a dignified end to the season.

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically a big-time power hitter for the Marlins.

Act Like It's Business as Usual

 

Today the Houston Astros, with their trusted closer gone for a while and their setup man Bryan Abreu not a proven 9th inning man, signed Craig Kimbrel to a deal. Kimbrel has been...shaky in recent years. Last year for Baltimore he struggled mightily filling in for Felix Bautista. Earlier this year he was very good in two appearances for Atlanta but was cut rather than optioned due to his contract. It does generally look like Kimbrel looks better than he has, and could help the Astros. But Kimbrel also might be a small bandaid on a gaping wound. 

The Astros have lost 6 of their last 8. Four of those losses were shutouts, including a game that was nearly perfect. Three of those losses had deficits of 10 runs or more. As I'm writing this they're winning against the Orioles, but that's because of their ingenious strategy of making the Orioles leave Brandon Young in til the ninth and tire him out so that the next time they have to face him, a week later, he'll be manageable. But the rest of the O's series relies on starts from Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers and Spencer Arrighetti, all of whom have missed time this year due to injuries, and all of whom have seen their quality go down as a result. Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez have been great, but they've been lucky. 

Bryan Abreu, with a 2.8 WAR, has the fourth-highest WAR on the team. Higher than every hitter except for Jeremy Pena. Which means that only one hitter has a better WAR than 2.8. On the Astros, the team that normally outhits everyone. Could it be that letting Alex Bregman, George Springer and Kyle Tucker go results in a spottier overall lineup performance? Or maybe getting mixed signals on Yordan Alvarez's status a year after going through the same ordeal with Kyle Tucker points to bargaining with the inevitable? Look, the way this team used to be run, an injury to Taylor Trammell didn't used to be the sort of thing that hampered momentum. Or a missed month from Jake Meyers. 

It's down to the Bryan Abreus and Mauricio Dubons and Victor Caratinis of this team, and that's why there's been such a drop-off. Even plugging Carlos Correa back into things can only do so much. He's hitting .333 with 2 homers and 8 RBIs, but he's running into the same problems he did in Minnesota, where the exclamation point he used to carry is basically gone and now he's just a halfway decent infield bat. Meanwhile, Abreu has a 1.58 ERA and 84 Ks in 56 innings. He's one of the best relief pieces in baseball. And he's arguably succeeding because there's no pressure on him. There's been pressure on Meyers and Trammell and Christian Walker to fill these roles and bring the team back and it's just not happening because the Astros are trying to pretend that nothing's different. The last couple years this has worked because the core has still been volatile. Here it's not fooling anyone.

The one thing the Astros have to be grateful for is that the Mariners are falling at a similar rate. But next the Astros have to play the Rockies and Angels, two teams who've played the spoiler for similar competitors, while the Mariners have to play the A's, Guardians and Rays. You never know when the momentum will finally swing someone else's way.

Coming Tomorrow- One of the most powerful hitters of his generation by far.

Took Me Awhile to Get There

 

Here are two customs that it really shouldn't have taken me til August to make. I know. I have my reasons.

In the case of Yoshinobu Yamamoto's, I was being a little selfish. Last year I made Yamamoto's custom in March as one of the earlier ones of the season, and I didn't want to do him really early two years in a row, even as he went off to a great start in April. Then as he stayed strong in the first half, I went towards more pressing subjects, like Freeman and Ohtani. And for the last couple months I'd just assumed I'd done one already. So now I am posting a Yoshinobu Yamamoto custom in mid-August...where his ERA is closer to 3, his record is closer to even and many more pitchers have lapped him for the Cy Young conversation. Yamamoto's still having a great season, and he's been one of the most consistent starters for the Dodgers, but you can also see that he's not perfect, and has his human moments. Less of them than other Dodgers starters thankfully, but they're still there.

Matt Boyd, meanwhile, was just the victim of a really strong year for Cubs players. Every week I'd have someone that was just a little more pressing as a custom subject, like Carson Kelly as he vied for an ASG spot, or Shota Imanaga as he went on a strong stretch, or Michael Busch as he kept hammering homers. Boyd was always having a strong year, going 11-6 with a 2.46 ERA in 24 games, but as a 34-year-old starter in a field of much stronger, and younger, players, I was waiting for the downturn. It hasn't happened yet, though, and Boyd has been a very strong presence for this rotation in a year without Kyle Hendricks or Justin Steele. 

Ultimately, my sporadic schedule, and my other preferences in making customs, have left these two here. A moment where both their teams really aren't as exciting as they were months ago.

The Dodgers are in first place, and have a slight leg up on the Padres, but you're seeing the wheels beginning to come off. Monday night they blew a game to the Rockies thanks to Teoscar Hernandez misplaying a ball, and Mookie Betts doesn't want to move back to the outfield despite his superior defense there. They've lost Muncy again, as well as Edman and Kim, and the bulk of their bullpen is hurt, meaning Blake Treinen, Anthony Banda and Ben Casparius are working overtime. It's very good that Glasnow and Snell are back, and thriving, but there's still chunks of this team missing, and they're trying to 'but we're the Dodgers' their way to 1st anyway. I think there's still an outside chance that it can be done, but the Padres are gonna have more opportunities to knock them off their pedestal, and they won't all be missed.

The Cubs, meanwhile, have resigned themselves to the fact that they're not gonna finish in first this year, and now have shifted to making sure they still make the playoffs. Right now that's very doable, as they've won 70 games, and just took two games of a doubleheader from the all-too-ferocious Brewers. But they're still contending with a recent Kyle Tucker slump, a recent PCA slump, and the potential of an injury to Cade Horton, their newest rookie wunderkind. Getting Javier Assad and Jameson Taillon back, in decent quality, is a good thing. And seeing the bats pick up has also helped, especially in divisional games. The Cubs still will factor into this season's big picture, and I'm still thinking they'll break into the postseason for the first time with this squad. 

At the very least both these customs could post while these teams are still regarded as good. Who knows how long that'll last?

Coming Tonight: A reliever for a good team that no one has been able to hit...til very recently.

Timing the Eclipse

 

The story so far: the Cleveland Guardians sold at the deadline despite being in range of a wild card spot, while the Royals bought at the deadline despite having a lot longer to go to get to one. And now they're within a half-game of each other. One team going one direction, the other team colliding. And it makes me wonder one very important question: if the Guardians had done NOTHING, if they hadn't traded everybody pre-season, would they still have competed?

The Guardians nearly got to a World Series last year, and they did it with a new manager and a team that had been building for a while, plus a number of rookies that helped them grow, like Kyle Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, Daniel Schneemann and Cade Smith. Then during the offseason they trade Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez and Myles Straw, and let Matthew Boyd go in free agency. Then during the season, a number of the guys that ruled them in 2024, like Noel, Lane Thomas, David Fry, Brayan Rocchio and Tanner Bibee fail to deliver, Ben Lively gets injured after 9 games, the betting scandal takes out two of their best pen guys, and they now have to trade Paul Sewald and Shane Bieber. If they keep around the people whose absences put more pressure on Rocchio, Fry, Noel and Thomas, then maybe the team doesn't fall off this year, and they're actually able to stay in it. 

And even after the limited selling the Guardians did do, as they were also supposed to trade Emmanuel Clase, Steven Kwan and Carlos Santana but decided not to, didn't really stop them too much. Two weeks elapsed from the deadline and in that stretch they went 10-2. Gavin Williams became the ace they needed. Kyle Manzardo crossed 20 homers and cemented himself as a needed power bat. They were chasing the Yankees for that last wild card spot. And then last week they stopped in their tracks, the Yanks got hot, and now the Royals are at their feet.

Now...does it feel to anyone else like the Guardians miiiight be deliberately throwing this season? I cannot see any reason why, after last season went so well, this team now suddenly has to give up. I think this has to do with some of the points Tony Clark is raising in order to advocate for a salary floor, because owners really aren't encouraged to keep a team competitive, especially in mid-level markets like Cleveland. There's no reason the Guardians shouldn't have still gone for it this year, and the fact that they're sinking to the point of sitting out the playoffs seems very much like an inside job. 

Meanwhile, the Royals were a sleeper wild card team last year, had a smaller season this year, bought at the deadline and are now 12-6 since the deadline. Their deadline strategy, for the most part, has paid off: while Bailey Falter has struggled since coming over, former Padres also-ran Ryan Bergert has been fantastic in a starting role, with 2.70 ERA and 17 Ks in his first 3 starts in KC. Adam Frazier has gotten right back to where he left off last year, hitting .316 with 2 homers and 13 RBIs in 24 games. Mike Yastrzemski has 4 homers and 7 RBIs in 15 games, and is already being welcomed by the fans. This is a season that could have been halted by losing Caglianone and Bubic and there they go.

And where the rookies in Cleveland have failed to continue delivering, the young guys in Kansas City have continued to carry this team. Noah Cameron has taken on a lot of the load during his rookie season, starting 17 games, and doing so with a 2.47 ERA and a 7-5 record. Cameron is a very well-needed presence in a rotation that has already lost Bubic and Ragans. You've also seen a breakout year for Maikel Garcia, some excellent August production from John Rave, and even Vinnie Pasquantino FINALLY beginning to get hot. Obviously the stars, like Witt and Lugo and Perez and Wacha, can perform, but the Royals needed the supporting guys to step up [like the Guards' should have], and they have. And that's why I'm a lot more confident in them stepping into the wild card race.

I think either of these two could be fun presences in the mix for the AL, but with an already crowded field there may be room for only one, or neither if the Mariners can stop from completely bottoming out. They're both gonna have to see how their approaches will pan out, I guess.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who...sort of had the right idea leaving Cleveland?

Get With the Times

 

In 2022, the New York Mets were the talk of baseball. They were using Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso to get to the playoffs, and the Buck Showalter way of life was working. The centerpiece of the team was not only an incredible performance from Edwin Diaz, but the most intimidating walk-up in sports, with Diaz's ascent to the mount hailed by Timmy Trumpet and a spine-shattering fanfare. In 2022, it was the most epic entrance in sports. If Diaz was coming on in the ninth, you were toast. 

In 2023, Diaz got hurt, the Mets dealt their nearest pieces, and Buck Showalter lost his job. And the quest to start over began.

In 2024, the New York Mets were the talk of baseball. They make it to an NLCS on the strength of Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea, Lindor, Nimmo and the surprise postseason reappearance of Kodai Senga. Diaz was...alright, but only notched 20 saves and was more of a solid reliever than a solid closer.

And now the Mets are trying desperately to act like they haven't relapsed again, even with Juan Soto doing Juan Soto things in the heart of the lineup. Injuries have left this team a wild card competitor, with a lot of great pitchers just not delivering this year. The stretch from June 13th on has been atrocious, as the Mets have gone from a 1st place team to barely hanging on above the Reds. And most frustratingly...Edwin Diaz isn't a league-best closer anymore.

Look, there's a chance Diaz gets 30 saves this year, and his next one will be #250 as a career, but the guy who chased K-Rod with the Mariners isn't this same guy. He's very much a solid, consistent eighth inning guy who can also do some 9th inning work, and he's made it into the situation where the team has no choice but to trust him as a closer. They did get Ryan Helsley as a closing option, but like Diaz, Helsley is better as a setup guy. At the very least, Diaz is unhittable this year, and has a 1.69 ERA with 70 Ks. But the guy who was always a ninth inning lock in 2022 isn't here. Further, there's an NL East closer that has usurped him in that category. Jhoan Duran not only has a cooler entrance, but is getting much more opportunity to save. It's just not Diaz's time anymore.

And I'm not trying to belittle Diaz for no reason. He's still an excellent relief piece, and has helped the Mets stay in the race. But I don't know if he's THE closer for this team anymore. Which I think the Mets do have to come to terms with.

I think the Mets have a chance to still factor into this season, and you're seeing a slight uptick since the Little League Classic. Nolan McLean is absolutely ready for the bigs, and he's joined Peterson and Senga as sure things in the rotation. Alonso just passed Straw and is still rolling. Soto's got another 30-homer year and still has time for more. But they need to get past their uncomfortably bad stretch and reestablish themselves as an intimidating NL force. This may be difficult with the Brewers, Phillies and Dodgers commanding the narrative, but there's still time now.

Coming Tomorrow- Hard-hitting DH/corner for a team desperately clinging to their probability to compete.